Calgary Real Estate Today...

B's Blog

Cogent, insightful, interesting, and informative, Bryan (or "B" as he's called by his friends) regularly posts his thoughts on the Calgary Real Estate market. Check back from time to time or... sign up for an e-mail alert.

July 27, 2010

So...we got caught up in a discussion today via email with a financial commentator on BNN regarding the price of housing, which he thinks is too high and frankly, we agree with him...sort of and completely if we think Vancouver which is, in my humble opinion...a bug in search of a windshield. Calgary though is a different matter and I guess this is where I part company with "blanket statement" commentators.

Calgary housing prices did get "too high" 3 years ago and we are now suffering through the "hangover" but we view this as a correction within an ongoing bull market, whereas some other markets may be seeing the start of a structural decline which could/will last for many years.

On another note, I was reading my daily missive from the folks at Casey Research today and they were kind enough to post a graph which one of their folks put together on sovereign debt and deficits with each country's current position clearly noted. And this is important you ask, because....?

Right. Well I do believe it is, in that the world she be shrinkin' fast and today, what happens to a country like Greece or Spain or even, like Latvia or Belgium is of concern and will affect us here at home so...it behooves us to all pay attention as much as possible.

Anyway, I have taken the liberty of posting this graph by Casey Research on to our Charts & Graphs page and please do have a look; esp. at Japan (another bug lookin' for a windshield) and esp. Canada where for a change, our position vis a vis the rest of the world actually looks pretty good!

And...on that cheery note I bid you adieu for today and say "Thank you" once again for reading B's Blog.

July 24, 2010

Summer in Calgary...now what could be better than that? Good question, and for me at least is, nothing! We love summer in Our Town...most of the time anyway; which is more than we can say about our real estate market right now but, as W.T. (my old boss) used to say, "it's what makes the world go 'round, my boy!"

W.T. was right of course, for it seems that even these markets present opportunity for the discerning buyer and, while those who must sell are having a tough go of it right now, patient buyers will prosper and those who must sell should just get it over with and realise that, to argue with Mr. Market is to court disaster because well...he always wins and right now, and to continue the metaphor, we see him staying "grouchy" for awhile yet, with our best guess on a turnaround being next spring but...more on that later. Right now we've got to get out and enjoy this lovely summer's day!

July 8, 2010

As I sit here in head office on this wonderful summer evening, sipping some of my favourite brew and listening to Dave McKenna play some great ragtime and swing piano, I am contemplating what the balance of the year may hold for the Calgary real estate market and frankly, we fear it may be more of the same; which is to say, declining sales activity and lower prices. However, we also realise that it's The Summer Doldrums as well so, come September, it may well be that The Market will turn on a dime so, til then, we're keeping our predictions locked away (close to our heart, as it were).

Interest rates too have decided to confuse for, just about the time we decided the jig was up for rates, they reversed course after rising about 1 full point and are now down again. for how long, of course, is the magic question but frankly, we wouldn't be surprised to see them at these levels a year from now; especially if the national economy starts heading south again as some folks think.

We live in perilious times 'tis true but - if you can look past the smoke & mirrors and belive that, over time, the Alberta economy will continue to grow "above trend" and that our oilsands riches will continue to drive our economy, it would seem reasonable we think, to believe that we also live in opportune times and that, at some point, the current malaise in our local real estate market will represent a great buying opportunity.

Finally, if you have a look at the current offering on the Charts & Graphs page, you can see how sales activity has completely collapsed this year and esp. since May 15 or so. The silver lining for us though is that these drastic changes are often reversed just as dramatically so take heart - this too shall pass!

June 15, 2010

So listen up y'all...our June Newsletter is now posted to the newsletter page so please do have a look. We thought long and hard about this one, as it's not the prettiest of topics, talking about falling prices and all but, we think it has to be said so - we have...even though we may now run the risk of being shot as the bearer of bad news...

Anyway, we crunched numbers during every spare moment for the past week or so in getting ready for this month's effort and we came up with some intiguing possibilities as to the future course for our beloved Calgary Real Estate Market.

We hope you enjoy it and, more than that, we hope it gives you some food for thought.

June 1, 2010

A smart fellow (Disraeli??) once claimed there were 3 types of lie; namely, ordinary lies, damned lies and statistics and today, we were all witness to the latter of those lies, as the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) released its MLS statistics today for the month of May and...those stats showed an increase in listings, a rather massive decline in sales and, what can only be called a massive increase in the average price.

"How can this be?", you ask. Well that's a great question and, for now, my only answer is that, even though the market slowed a lot, it did so, mainly in the middle and lower price ranges and, with the severe drop in activity overall, those high priced sales of say $750K and above, simply drove the average up. By way of contrast though, the stats also showed only a slight increase in the Median number which rose just $3,000 over that in April ($420K vs. $417K).

Finally, and as proof for our thesis that prices really are in decline (or will be very shortly), take a look at our Price Reductions graph which I've posted on the Charts & Graphs page. Clearly, with asking prices now being reduced en masse it seems clear to us that the stats will begin to confirm the fact in a month, or two at the most.

Now saying this does not make me happy in the least. We, like lots of other hard working REALTORs have properties for sale and no one likes to suggest to their clients that perhaps they'll need to reduce their "price expectations". However, it is what we do when we see the wheels coming off and prices in decline - with no end in sight.

On the interest rate front, the Bank of Canada performed as expected today and short rates rose by a quarter point. However, and in noting that the European situation was "fragile", The Bank made it plain that those rates could come back down on a moments notice so, if nothing else, it looks like low rates will be with us for some time to come.

Finally, if you are a Seller and you need to get your property SOLD - here's some free advice which I've acquired over the past 30+ years in the business: To get property sold in a declining market it is ESSENTIAL to get out in front of the market and by this, I mean that Sellers must price their home just under THE LAST SALE if they hope to be successful in a market such as we have now.

Sure, I know that is a painful thing to do, however, in doing this, your home will attract attention which, at the end of the day, is what it takes to sell any home...attention from and by...Buyers.